Optimal Strategies for Controlling Visceral Leishmaniasis: A Case Study from South Sudan

Abstract

This study aims to develop and analyze a compartmental model for Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL). The model is calibrated using monthly incidence data from South Sudan for the year 2011. We derive and estimate the basic reproduction number, R₀, for the proposed model and explore the possibility of bifurcation within the system. Various control strategies are examined using optimal control theory, including the use of treated bed nets, vaccination, reservoir culling, and treatment of infected individuals. Numerical simulations indicate that a combined approach involving mass treatment, vaccination, bed nets, and reservoir culling is most effective in reducing VL prevalence. Among these, mass treatment emerges as the most critical intervention during outbreaks. Conversely, relying solely on reservoir culling is unlikely to significantly benefit the community.